Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar were in action another time within the early a part of the day. Economic data out of China also influenced early .
Looking at the newest coronavirus numbers,
On Wednesday, the amount of latest coronavirus cases rose by 87,960 to 3,808,833. On Tuesday, the amount of latest cases had risen by 81,537. The daily increase was above Tuesday’s rise and a 77,918 increase on the previous Wednesday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 9,651 new cases on Wednesday, which was up from 4,993 new cases on Tuesday. On the previous Wednesday, 8,651 new cases had been reported. All 4 member states saw an increase in new cases, with France and Spain reporting the very best increases on the day.
From the U.S, the entire number of cases rose by 20,715 to 1,256,171 on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the entire number of cases had risen by 25,189. On Wednesday, 29th April, the entire new number of cases had risen by 27,752.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Inflation expectations for 2-years out slumped within the 2nd quarter from 1.93% to 1.24%, reversing an increase from 1.80% to 1.93% within the 1st quarter. Inflation expectations had stood at 2.01% back within the June quarter of 2019 and therefore the June quarter of 2018.
According to the RBNZ’s survey of expectations,
Inflation expectations for 1-year out tumbled from 1.88% to 0.74%, reversing an increase from 1.66% to 1.88% within the 1st quarter.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60181 to $0.60220 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.23% to $0.6022.
For the Aussie Dollar
Trade data was focused within the early a part of the day. In March, Australia’s trade surplus widened from A$4.361bn to A$10.602bn. Economists had forecast a widening to A$6,800bn.
According to the ABS,
- Goods and services credits surged A$5,558m (15%) to A$42,417m.
- Non-rural goods exports rose A$3,40m (15%), with non-monetary gold rising A$2,474m and rural goods A$271m (7%).
- Net exports of goods under merchanting rose A$1m (6%), while services credits slid by A$727m (9%).
- Goods and services debits fell A$1,178m (4%) to A$31,815m.
- Imports of capital goods fell A$194m (3%), with services debits tumbling A$1,492m (19%).
- Imports of non-monetary gold surged A$466m (85%).
- There were also increases in the imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods (A$31m) and consumption goods (A$10m).
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64027 to $0.64093 upon release of the figures, which preceded stats out of China. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.34% to $0.6422.
Out of China
April trade figures and repair PMI numbers were also focused within the early a part of the day.
In April, the Caixin Services PMI rose from 43.0 to 44.4. Economists had forecast a rise to 47.7.
According to the Markit Survey,
- Firms reported further falls in business activity and new work in April, though at a slower pace of decline since February.
- The COVID-19 pandemic remained a key driver, leading to new export sales falling at the 2nd fastest pace on record.
- Companies trimmed payrolls as a result of falling sales.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64093 to $0.64048 upon release of the figures.
In April, China’s U.S Dollar trade surplus widened from US$19.93bn to US$45.34bn. Economists had forecast a narrowing to US$6.35bn.
- Exports rose by 3.5%, following a 6.6% decline in March. Economists had a forecasted 15.7% slide.
- Imports slumped by 14.2%, following a 1% fall in March. Economists had forecast an 11.2% tumble.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64141 to $0.64221 upon release of the figures.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥106.20 against the U.S Dollar. Advertisement
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a comparatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Following another string of dire numbers from Wednesday, French nonfarm payroll figures for the first quarter are due out.
A particularly dire fall in nonfarm payrolls would likely add further pressure to the EUR. 2nd quarter numbers, however, are more likely to reflect the impact of the lockdown.
Away from the numbers, expect market risk sentiment to also influence because the EUR comes under renewed pressure. the newest set of stats suggests that the Eurozone’s economic woes are far worse than initially anticipated. That puts even more specialise in EU member states and their inability to deliver a more meaningful stimulus package…
Dire numbers and therefore the German court ruling on the legality of the ECB’s bond-buying program could also be tough the shake off…The markets are getting to need some clarity on what’s next…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.0803.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. While economic data is restricted to deal with price figures, the BoE is scheduled to deliver its May monetary policy decision.
While the markets expect interest rates to be left unchanged, the vote count and forward guidance are going to be key.
Away from the economic calendar, the newest COVID-19 numbers and updates from EU – UK negotiations are negatives for the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.20% to $1.2325.
Across the Pond
It’s a comparatively quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. The weekly jobless claims figures are due out along side 1st quarter unit labor cost and nonfarm productivity figures.
Expect the weekly jobless claims figures to possess the best influence on risk appetite on the day. The markets are going to be trying to find a marked decline in weekly claims…
Away from the stats, any chatter from Beijing or Washington also will need monitoring on the day.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.05% to 100.139 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a comparatively quiet day on the economic calendar, with Ivey PMI numbers for April due out later today.
Expect the April figures to influence, with forecasts pointing to a marked slowdown within the pace of contraction.
Outside of the numbers, however, expect market risk sentiment and petroleum prices to stay a key driver.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.12% to C$1.4129 against the U.S Dollar.
